君合合伙人许蓉蓉接受法国知名媒体Leaders League采访，就“脱欧”问题发表观点

2016年6月24日，英国 “脱欧”公投结果揭晓，英国确定脱离欧盟。这一结果引发了国际社会的强烈关注。法国知名法律媒体Leaders League（以下简称“L”）就“脱欧”这一热点话题电话采访了君合合伙人许蓉蓉(Janet Hui)，她在访谈中分析了英国脱欧给中国公司带来的影响，并提供了专业的建议。

（君合合伙人许蓉蓉，执业领域：反垄断、公司与并购、外商投资等）

以下为访谈实录：

L： What was your reaction when you first heard about the result of the Brexit referendum?

L：当你第一次听到英国脱欧公投结果的时候，你的反应是什么？

Janet Hui: The result is quite surprising to me, and I think for most Chinese, at least for people in Beijing, it came as a surprise, probably because we are far from the eye of the storm and received information indirectly. Actually I was in London about a month ago attending conferences and meetings, and at that time we all thought that it wouldn’t happen.

许蓉蓉：我很惊讶，而且我认为对于大多数中国人，至少是在北京的人们，都感觉很惊讶，可能也是因为我们离风暴的中心太远了，也没有直接收到消息。但是实际上，我大约一个月之前在伦敦参加会议时，我们都认为英国脱欧是不会发生的。

L: Do you think that the Brexit will help strengthen Europe or rather weaken it?

L：你认为英国脱欧会让欧洲更强还是还是会削弱欧洲的力量？

Janet Hui: We are very concerned about the situation, and we think this is definitely not good news for Europe. The general observation is that Europe may be further weakened, and we are more worried about this exit mentality leading to the break up the whole European Union system. We believe if one more country tries to leave, the whole EU system will fall down, coupled with the fact that some European countries are already suffering economic crisis, the situation will then become really serious.

许蓉蓉：我们非常担忧目前的情况，并且我们认为这对欧洲来说绝对不是一个好消息。从目前大致的观察来看，欧洲的实力会被进一步削弱，我们更担心的是，这种脱欧的态度将会使整个欧盟系统崩塌。我们认为如果还有另外一个国家试图离开，整个欧盟系统将会倒塌，加之一些欧洲国家早已深陷经济危机的泥淖之中，所以目前的情形将会愈演愈烈。

L： What has the general reaction of Chinese companies been?

L：中国公司对此的大致反应目前是怎么样的？

Janet Hui: Actually, this morning I just attended an event about Chinese outbound investments to the UK and Europe held in the British embassy in Beijing, and unsurprisingly the Brexit became the hot topic this morning, and this event was mostly attended by Chinese companies!

许蓉蓉：今天早上我在北京参加了英国大使馆举办的一个活动，是关于中国对英国及欧洲投资的，不出所料的是，英国脱欧是今天早晨的热门话题，而且参加活动的大多数是中国公司！

I think Chinese companies probably won’t exit the UK/EU very quickly, since it’s not something that can be done overnight, but a lot of them are putting on hold of any possible investment or adopting a “wait-and-see” attitude. They are currently discussing possible projects they’ll put on hold, or taking a more conservative view concerning their previous aggressive expansion plan.

我认为中国公司可能不会迅速地退出英国和欧洲市场，这也不是一夜之间就能实现的，但是他们当中的很多人已经开始暂停投资活动，并持观望态度。他们目前正在讨论他们可能会中止的项目，或者是对之前冒进的扩张计划采取更加保守的观点。

But not all messages are negative. At the same time, if Chinese companies are interested in buying European assets or business, this situation may help. They expect Sterling and the Euro to continue to drop, and this is a shaky situation for the EU as the Euro may drop more, so some companies see this as a potential opportunity to buy good assets in high technology, famous branding or certain operations that they may not have been be able to acquire controlling shares in before. But I think no one will rush in or out, but rather wait and see for a certain period of time.

但并不是所有的信息都是消极的。与此同时，如果中国公司想购买欧洲的资产或企业，目前的形势可能会有所帮助。他们预计英镑和欧元将会持续下跌，而随着欧元的持续下跌，欧洲的情况会愈加不稳定，所以一些公司认为这是一个潜在的机会，他们可以购买高科技、知名品牌的资产，或者是购买他们之前可能无法获得控股股份的公司的资产。但是我认为不会有人仓促行事，在一定时间内，人们还是会保持观望态度。

L： What measures will Junhe take to protect your clients concerning their current operations or future investments?

L： 君合会采取怎样的措施来保护客户目前的经营和未来的投资？

Janet Hui: I think we need to look at two scenarios.

许蓉蓉：我认为我们需要着眼于两种情况。

For projects that have already been discussed, we just need to discuss with our clients about the implications for them, assuming the legal and regulatory implications within the UK and EU are quite important. As far as I understand, the UK cannot just leave, they still need to respect and re-negotiate the terms of their cooperation agreement with EU, as well as trading terms, so for those projects that are not yet committed, there is a lot of possibilities and we can always have flexible commercial terms, so our clients can always move forward depending on their sensibility towards different levels of risk involved and different scenarios.

对于正处于讨论阶段的项目，假如英国和欧洲的法律法规变化产生的影响非常重要的话，我们只需要和客户讨论这些情况可能产生的影响。根据我的理解，英国不会直接离开，他们仍需要尊重并重新商议他们与欧盟的合作协议及各项贸易条款，所以对于那些尚未实施的项目，仍会有各种可能性，我们可以找到许多灵活的、适用的商业条款，这样我们的客户可以依靠他们对不同程度的风险和不同情况的敏感度获得不断的发展。

A more difficult scenario will be probably the transactions that have been committed but not closed in the UK/EU. There will be tremendous legal and regulatory changes impacting their daily operation, so they will be faced with challenges and uncertainty due to such changes. It will take a few years to absorb this.

目前的情况将会给那些已经在英国或欧洲开始运作但并未结束的交易带来更多困难。大量的法律法规变化将影响他们的日常运作，所以他们将面临更多的挑战和不确定性，这些棘手的事情需要几年时间来解决。

L：Would you say that for lawyers, this is more of an opportunity than a crisis?

L：你会认为英国脱欧对于律师来说，不是危机反而是机遇吗？

Janet Hui: Maybe. As lawyers, we have more work to do, but at the same time, given the changes in the legal and regulatory regime, we need to catch up and adapt to the changes because our clients need to get updates from us. Of course, this kind of situation will create more legal work for our firm, because our clients call us for assistance whenever there is a problem, and it’s our duty to assist their business.

许蓉蓉：也许吧。作为律师，我们有更多的工作可以做，但是同时，由于法律法规体制的变化，我们需要迎头赶上，并且适应变化，因为我们的客户需要靠我们获得更新的信息。当然，对于我们律所来说，目前的情形会带来更多的法务工作，因为我们的客户只要出现问题就会找我们寻求帮助，为他们的业务提供帮助就是我们的职责。

L：What advice would you give to your clients to best protect their interests for the moment?

L：在目前情况下，您会给您的客户提供怎样的建议，使他们能够最大程度的保护自己的利益？

Janet Hui: I would suggest taking a conservative view and follow the trend. For anything that is not yet committed to the UK/EU, better put it on hold. In terms of the currency, don’t hedge against Sterling or the Euro, it might be too early to do anything, even for hedge funds. When you look at the UK now, it’s a little bit messy, and the market is still in chaos in terms of understanding the messages and implications, and no one can claim to be an expert and say definitively what happened. In such circumstances, I’d advise them to remain conservative and not to rush in or out. Who knows, this may be an opportunity.

许蓉蓉：我会建议客户采取保守的观点，跟随趋势。对于任何还没有开始在英国或者欧盟运作的交易，最好暂停。在货币方面，不要对英镑或者是欧元进行套期保值甚至购买对冲基金，目前还为时过早。你现在着眼于英国的市场时，会感到有些凌乱。市场仍然是一片混乱，尚无法对信息和可能产生的影响进行合理的分析、理解。没有人可以称自己为专家，能预测出一定会发生什么。在这样的情形下，我建议他们保持保守状态，不要仓促做决定。谁知道这到底是不是个机会呢？